ESPN-NY’s All-Time Yankees Team

As part of the launch of ESPN New York last week and the much-hyped Yankees-Red Sox season opener, the Worldwide Leader ran a poll in which users were asked to select the greatest Yankees by position (starting lineup with DH, four-man rotation, and closer).  The results can be viewed here.

Not surprisingly, Yankee fans showed once again that they the most knowledgeable in baseball, choosing correctly just about every position.  Of the fourteen selections, I could find only three with which I disagreed: Casey Stengel as manager, Reggie Jackson as DH, and Andy Pettitte as one of the four starters.
Stengel is consistently overrated in these kinds of rankings and polls due to his outsized personality.  I think a lot of people wind up picking him just because they’re familiar with his witty, sometimes clownish sayings and know he won a lot as Yankees skipper: 7 World Series titles, 10 pennants, and a .623 winning percentage in 12 seasons.  That’s a stellar managerial record, to be sure, but Joe McCarthy’s may be even better.  In 16 seasons as Yankee manager, McCarthy won 7 World Series, 8 pennants, and posted a .627 winning percentage.  While a cursory analysis might note that Stengel won more pennants in fewer seasons, it ignores the fact that McCarthy’s record was diluted somewhat by the War years, when he was handicapped by the absence of stars like DiMaggio, Rizzuto, and Henrich.  It’s also important to note that McCarthy has the highest winning percentage of any manager in both the regular season (.615) and the World Series (.698).  For those reasons, I’d give the slight edge to McCarthy over Stengel.
At DH, much as I like Reggie Jackson, I probably would have gone with either Don Mattingly or Bernie Williams.  Reggie spent five years with the Yankees and if you compare those years to the five best of Mattingly and Williams, he comes up a little short.  Of course, such a comparison discounts the great years Reggie had in Oakland, but we’re talking about the greatest Yankees, not necessarily the greatest players or careers overall.  Then again, Reggie is responsible for one of the greatest feats in Yankee history, so his selection is not exactly unwarranted.
Finally, Red Ruffing should have been selected to the four-man rotation over Andy Pettitte.  In 15 seasons with the Yankees, Red Ruffing went 231-124 (.651) with a 3.47 ERA (119 ERA+). In Pettitte’s 13 seasons in pinstripes, he’s posted a record of 192-109 (.638) and a 4.01 ERA (114 ERA+).  Close, but the advantage goes to Ruffing.
All in all, these are relatively minor quibbles and serve to demonstrate how well-informed the rest of the selections were.  By way of comparison, check out the travesty that is the All-Time Red Sox Team: the Fenway Faithful, shockingly ignorant of their own team’s history, unconscionably left off the great Tris Speaker (he actually came in fifth in outfield voting) and chose four-year veteran Dustin Pedroia over Bobby Doerr at second base.  As if we needed more proof that Yankee fans are far more knowledgeable than their Red Sox counterparts…

Sabermetric Fallacy: A walk is as good as a hit

I have many issues with sabermetrics, which I will detail sporadically on this blog.  I’m not wholly resistant to sabermetric innovations (ERA+ is a great tool to compare pitchers across eras, walks have traditionally been undervalued), but I am contemptuous of its gross excesses–e.g., convoluted, abstract metrics like VORP and WAR that are about as reliable and credible as the complex mathematical models financial institutions used to justify sub-prime mortgages as sound investments–and its brainless cult of adherents who try with religious zeal to peddle its many fallacies as gospel.  To paraphrase Mark Twain, “There are lies, damn lies, and sabermetrics.”

One major fallacy oft-repeated by the pencilnecked statheads is that batting average is a meaningless statistic; in their parlance, a walk is as good as a hit.  It’s not.  It’s a completely bogus claim, and it doesn’t take an advanced background in math to understand why: runners can only advance a maximum of one base on a walk–if that–but can and often do advance two bases on a single.  This little, overlooked fact has a profound ripple effect on the outcome of an inning.
Let’s consider a situation where a team is trying to score a run with either two walks or a walk and a single.  Assume no errors or stolen bases; a “productive out” denotes an out that advances at least the lead runner one base (sacrifice bunt, fly out and tag up, fielder’s choice); a “scoring out” denotes an out that scores a runner (sac bunt or fly, or fielder’s choice).
Scenario #1: Two Walks
Under this scenario, there is but one way for the team to score a run:
  • Walk–Walk–Productive Out–Scoring Out
Timing and sequence are indispensable: if either of the first two batters fails to walk, it will be impossible to score (likewise if the third batter fails to move the runner over from second).  The team has to thread the proverbial needle.
Scenario #2: A Walk and a Single
Exchanging a walk with a single, however, exponentially increases the scoring possibilities:
  • Walk/Single–Single/Walk–Productive Out–Scoring Out
  • Walk–Single (lead runner stops at second)–Productive Out–Scoring Out
  • Walk–Single (lead runner advances to third)–Scoring Out
  • Walk–Single (lead runner advances to third)–Out–Scoring Out
  • Walk–Out–Single (lead runner advances to third)–Scoring Out
  • Walk–Out–Productive Out–Single
  • Walk–Productive Out–Single
What this example demonstrates is that while there may be no practical difference between a bases-empty single and a bases-empty walk, a single is considerably more valuable than a walk when men are on base–and that value advantage is obviously compounded the more men are on base.  This is but one reason among many why batting average is indeed a very important statistic.  It also helps expose one of the biggest sabermetric myths.

Barack Obama, You’re No Whitey Ford

In case you missed it, Barack Obama unleashed one of the most pathetic presidential first pitches in history before yesterday’s Nats-Phils game in Washington, tossing a soft, slow, high-arcing pitch that sailed high and several time zones wide of home plate.  Perhaps not surprisingly, the ball sailed radically to the left.  Coming on the heels of Obama’s pitiful short hop eephus pitch at last year’s All-Star Game, he might want to forego any future first pitch invitations so as to save himself embarrassment and unfavorable comparisons to his predecessor.

2010 Yankees Projections

With the new season now upon us, it’s time for some rough projections about what we can expect from each Yankee starter.  The following are baseline numbers extrapolated from each player’s respective age, health, and record of performance.  In short, they represent what I think it is reasonable to expect from each player at this stage of his career.  Generally, I’d consider it a disappointment if a player fails to meet the level indicated and a bonus if he exceeds it.

  1. Derek Jeter - .320, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 112 R, 22 SB
  2. Nick Johnson - .285, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 74 R
  3. Mark Teixeira - .302, 41 HR, 131 RBI, 110 R
  4. Alex Rodriguez - .295, 42 HR, 124 RBI, 116 R, 20 SB
  5. Robinson Cano - .312, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 105 R
  6. Jorge Posada - .275, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 65 R
  7. Curtis Granderson - .274, 28 HR, 83 RBI, 95 R, 18 SB
  8. Nick Swisher - .255, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 80 R
  9. Brett Gardner - .280, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 75 R, 35 SB
C.C. Sabathia - 21-7, 3.25 ERA, 200 K
A.J. Burnett - 16-8, 3.85 ERA, 190 K
Andy Pettitte - 15-10, 4.10 ERA, 150 K
Javier Vazquez - 16-9, 4.15 ERA, 190 K
Phil Hughes - 13-8, 4.20 ERA, 160 K
Mariano Rivera - 42 SV, 3-4, 2.20 ERA, 75 K
If the Yankees can perform in the neighborhood of these projections, they should have little difficulty winning the division by at least 5 games.

Reason #1,0001 to Hate the Red Sox…

d65e8fe257_15tek1.jpg…the pompous “C” on the front of Jason Varitek’s jersey.  This is not hockey or even football, where captains are responsible for interacting with officials or making the decision to accept or decline a penalty: the role of baseball team “captain” carries no formal on-field responsibilities that require he be identified as such on his uniform.  Adorning a baseball jersey with a “C” to advertise a ceremonial position is affected and shamelessly egotistical.

Varitek is currently the only captain of a major league team to do so.  If Varitek were really deserving of the honor of team captain, he’d possess the humility, sense, and gravitas not to advertise his status on the front of his uniform.

2010 Predictions

AL East

  1. New York Yankees
  2. Boston Red Sox (WC)
  3. Tampa Rays
  4. Baltimore Orioles
  5. Toronto Blue Jays
AL Central
  1. Detroit Tigers
  2. Chicago White Sox
  3. Minnesota Twins
  4. Cleveland Indians
  5. Kansas City Royals
AL West
  1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
  2. Texas Rangers
  3. Seattle Mariners
  4. Oakland Athletics

MVP: Alex Rodriguez, NYY
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, SEA


NL East
  1. Philadelphia Phillies
  2. Atlanta Braves
  3. New York Mets
  4. Florida Marlins
  5. Washington Nationals
NL Central
  1. Chicago Cubs
  2. St. Louis Cardinals
  3. Milwaukee Brewers
  4. Houston Astros
  5. Cincinnati Reds
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. San Francisco Giants (WC)
  3. Colorado Rockies
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks
  5. San Diego Padres
MVP: Ryan Braun, MIL
Cy Young: Roy Halladay, PHI
ALDS
New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers in 4 games
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim over Boston Red Sox in 5 games
NLDS
Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants in 5 games
Chicago Cubs over Los Angeles Dodgers in 5 games
ALCS
New York Yankees over Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 5 games
NLCS
Chicago Cubs over Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games
World Series
New York Yankees over Chicago Cubs in 5 games

Bad News for Yankee Bullpen

According to Peter Abraham, Brian Bruney has a torn ligament in his ankle and will likely miss the rest of the season.  Bruney had been pitching great and the Yankees are sure to miss his presence in the back-end of the bullpen.  Jonathan Albaladejo has been recalled to replace Bruney.

Rain Delays Continue to Vex Girardi

Joe Girardi cannot manage around a rain delay.  Less than a month into the season, that much is apparent.

Two weeks ago, Girardi made the unconventional (read: zany) decision, based on pregame weather reports, to scratch Ian Kennedy from a start in Kansas City and start Brian Bruney instead.  Rather than waste Kennedy in the event his start was cut short by an extended rain delay or the game was cancelled, Girardi thought it made more sense to “save” Kennedy for after the delay and use him in relief.  Of course, the anticipated rain delay never materialized, Girardi needlessly taxed his bullpen for five innings, and Kennedy only wound up pitching the final three innings.  Luckily for Girardi, his silly managerial move was rendered moot by the Yankees’ impotent offense, which was shutout in a 4-0 loss.
Fast forward to tonight.  Rain halts the game in the middle of the third inning with the Yanks up 3-0 on the White Sox and Phil Hughes in command.  After a 50-minute rain delay, rather than send Hughes back to the mound for another two or three innings, Girardi yanks him and goes to the bullpen — even though there’s still another seven innings to go and the bullpen is already down an arm because of Bruney’s ankle injury!  Unsurprisingly, the decision horribly backfired.  Russ Ohlendorf got touched up for 5 runs in the fourth and was forced from the game after only two innings of relief, leaving Girardi to patch together the final five innings of a game the Yanks were now losing from a ragtag group of Mariano, Joba, Billy Traber, and the ever-dependable duo of LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth.
Notice across the diamond, Ozzie Guillen had no compunction about sending Gavin Floyd back out to answer the bell.  Even David Cone was surprised not to see Hughes retake the mound.  As Cone had told the audience on YES earlier, pitchers are generally fine after anything less than a 90-minute delay.  Instead, the Yankees continue to baby their young pitchers and Girardi continues to struggle with how to manage around adverse weather conditions.
Not only did Girardi’s foolishly quick hook probably cost the Yankees tonight’s game, the emptying of the bullpen complicates the pitching situation for the upcoming four-game series in Cleveland.  Ian Kennedy goes tomorrow and the Yanks figure to be in need of some well-rested relievers to give them innings.  The most likely solution for the overworked bullpen is to place Bruney on the DL and recall either Jonathan Albaladejo or Scott Patterson.
In one month, Girardi has made two odd pitching decisions predicated upon unfounded weather-related concerns and one horrendous tactical decision to let Mike Mussina pitch to Manny Ramirez in a game-changing situation.  All three moves backfired.  Girardi needs to raise his game and start managing with common sense.  He is capable of being an outstanding manager, but he has at times shown a disadvantageous inclination to overthink matters.

Power Rankings: April 14

Parity continues to reign supreme, as teams struggle to separate themselves with little success.  For the second week in a row, the Arizona Diamondbacks earn the top spot, while the rest of the top ten remains muddled.

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks (9-3, LW: #1) – Along with Milwaukee, one of only two teams among preseason postseason contenders that has really distinguished itself thus far.
  2. Boston Red Sox (7-6, LW: #5) – Sox took 2 of 3 from Yankees and stay afloat despite Big Papi’s prolonged slump and Lowell’s injury.
  3. Milwaukee Brewers (8-4, LW: #7) – Brew Crew battered Johan Santana and Oliver Perez in taking 2 of 3 from the Metropolitans.
  4. Anaheim Angels (7-6, LW: #4) – Angels rank 1st in the AL in batting average, slugging, and stolen bases, and 2nd in runs scored.
  5. Chicago Cubs (7-5, LW: #10) – Derek Lee is carrying the Cubs offense while Soriano and Ramirez slump.  Ted Lilly has been pounded in each of his three starts this season.
  6. Cleveland Indians (5-7, LW: #3) – Offense is struggling and pitching ranks near the bottom in most every major category.  Tribe desperately needs Sabathia to get on track with a tough stretch coming up against Boston, Detroit, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the Yankees.
  7. New York Yankees (6-7, LW: #2) – Hit-and-miss starting pitching + a strong bullpen + an anemic offense = a mediocre record. Lefties Cano, Damon, and Giambi are struggling and A-Rod shows signs of slipping into a slump of his own.  
  8. Toronto Blue Jays (7-5, LW: #6) – Sweep-or-be-swept.  Last 9 games: 3 wins vs. Boston, 3 losses vs. Oakland, 3 wins vs. Texas.
  9. Philadelphia Phillies (6-7, LW: #8) – Pat the Bat’s .359, 4 HR, and 13 RBI start is as good as any in the league.  
  10. Chicago White Sox (7-4, LW: #17) – Should they be applauded for being 7-4 and in first place in the Central, or criticized for being one of only two teams to lose to the Tigers?
  11. St. Louis Cardinals (9-4, LW: #19) – Cards have the best record in baseball and the pitching staff is #1 in the NL in ERA, but the competition has been wanting.
  12. Oakland A’s (8-5, LW: #24) – No Haren, no Harden, no problem.  A’s had impressive week in sweeping Toronto and taking 2 of 3 in Cleveland.  Can they maintain the momentum this week against the White Sox, Mariners, and Royals?
  13. Minnesota Twins (6-6, LW: #14) – 2nd in ERA, 2nd in WHIP, 2nd in quality starts.  
  14. New York Mets (5-6, LW: #13) – Santana’s susceptibility to the home run ball is the latest addition to the growing list of concerns for baseball’s oldest team.
  15. Seattle Mariners (6-7, LW: #11) – Among the season’s early surprises, Raul Ibanez: .327, 5 HR, 13 RBI.
  16. Atlanta Braves (5-7, LW: #12) – Braves get John Smoltz back, only to lose Tom Glavine.  With Mike Hampton already on the DL, Atlanta can ill-afford for Glavine to make his first trip to the DL.  Chipper Jones leads the majors with a .408 batting average.
  17. San Diego Padres (7-6, LW: #21) – Pitching has been fantastic, but runs have been hard to come by.  This is a team that could use a little Bonds if it wants to contend.
  18. Kansas City Royals (7-5, LW: #18) – Royals played good crisp baseball in taking 2 of 3 from the Yanks, only to have the bats go silent in getting shutout twice by the Twins.  Still, Greinke and Bannister have been outstanding, posting miniscule ERAs both, and the Royals as a team rank 1st in the American League in ERA.
  19. Colorado Rockies (5-7, LW: #20) – 14th in the NL in batting, 14th in runs scored, 15th in ERA, and 15th in WHIP.  With numbers like that, the Rockies are lucky to be 5-7.  At least Matt Holiday heated up after a slow start (.340, 3 HR, 11 RBI).  The Rockies desperately need Troy Tulowitzki (.159, 0 HR, 0 RBI) and Brad Hawpe (.206, 1 HR, 3 RBI) to snap out of their awful slumps.
  20. Los Angeles Dodgers (5-7, LW: #16) – Tough week for the Dodgers.  First they get swept in Arizona, then they drop 2 of 3 at home to San Diego.  Joe Torre is learning what it’s like to manage a team without a $200 million payroll.
  21. Tampa Bay Rays (6-6, LW: #15) – Carlos Pena’s average may be in the sewer, but the Rays have to like the league-leading 6 HR.
  22. Detroit Tigers (2-10, LW: #9) – Last in the American League in batting, runs scored, slugging, ERA, WHIP, and quality starts.  Justin Verlander has a 6.52 ERA and the Tigers, as a team, have gotten just one quality start in 2008.  Is it any wonder why they’re 2-10?  Still, this is a supremely talented team that has plenty of time to get back into the mix.  Division rival Cleveland’s struggles take some of the sting out of the Tigers’ astoundingly poor start to ’08.
  23. Florida Marlins (7-5, LW: #29) – How are the Marlins 7-5?  They’ve gone 5-1 against the Nats and Pirates.  Mike Jacobs’ NL-leading 5 home runs have helped, too.
  24. Baltimore Orioles (7-5, LW: #28) – O’s have dropped 3 of their last 4, and with a rough schedule  this week (Blue Jays, White Sox, and Yankees), it’s a good bet their stay in first place will end by next Monday.
  25. Cincinnati Reds (6-7, LW: #22) – Reds have been getting solid pitching, but it’ll be difficult for them to keep pace in the Central with Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn combining for just 2 HR and 11 RBI.
  26. Texas Rangers (6-7, LW: #25) – Rangers are having trouble scoring runs with Michael Young mirred in a slump and Hank Blalock contributing but 1 RBI.  Josh Hamilton (3 HR, 13 RBI) has been the only consistent source of offense.  Kevin Millwood has a 1.29 ERA and deserves better than his 1-2 record.
  27. Pittsburgh Pirates (6-6, LW: #27) – Xavier Nady, slugger?  The X-Man is hitting .333 with 4 HR and 13 RBI.  If/when the Pirates fall out of contention, he’ll garner a lot of interest on the trade market from teams looking to rent an inexpensive bat for the stretch drive.
  28. Houston Astros (5-8, LW: #23) – Berkman and Tejada are pulling their weight, but no one else is.  Hunter Pence (.180, 1 HR, 1 RBI) has been downright awful.
  29. San Francisco Giants (5-8, LW: #30) – T
    he predictions about the Giants being one of the worst teams of all-time this season were overblown.  The lineup stinks, but Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum give them a fighting chance to win every time they pitch.  At the very least, the Giants are better than the lowly Nats.
  30. Washington Nationals (4-9, LW: #26) – Lastings Milledge has been solid and Cristian Guzman has been surprisingly productive.  Tim Redding has pitched well, but when he’s your ace, that speaks volumes about your pitching staff.

Round 1 Goes to the Red Sox

If Phil Hughes keeps getting knocked out before the fourth inning, the Yankees will have no trouble keeping him under his innings limit for the season.  As it was in his last start in Kansas City, Hughes’ problem was his inability to spot the fastball, which caused him to pitch continually in hitter-friendly counts — a big no-no when facing a lineup as potent Boston’s.  On the plus side, his fastball had good movement (perhaps it was even too good) and his velocity was his best of the season.  Hughes’ fastball was consistently clocking in at 93-94 mph, which is in-line with what was reported when he was in the minors and up from the 90-91 he was throwing in his first two starts.

Cano is having better at-bats.  The hits still aren’t there, but he’s seeing the ball better and exercising more plate discipline.  He needs to get back to driving the ball the other way.  Right now, he’s pull-happy and his front shoulder is flying open, causing him to roll over the ball and hit a lot of weak grounders to second.  Cano is most dangerous when he’s hitting to all fields.
Giambi also looked better at the plate, connecting for a couple of home runs in the series.  He’s not piling the hits up yet, either, but he made good, hard contact all weekend.  He could be primed to breakout this week.
This was a series the Yankees really could and should have won, even without Jeter.  Wang’s gem on Friday night set things up perfectly for a big weekend, but Girardi’s controversial decision not to walk Manny backfired and probably cost the Yanks a win on Saturday.  Despite Hughes digging the team a 7-run hole on Sunday, they fought back admirably and the game was still there for the taking until Damon hit into a backbreaking double play that, in all honesty, Melky should have avoided by pulling up before Pedroia could tag him out.
The Yankees just aren’t hitting right now.  They’re not hitting with runners on.  They’re not making productive outs.  They’re not hitting home runs.  Even their characteristic patience has been in short supply, Sunday night’s working over of Matsuzaka notwithstanding.  Until this lineup wakes from its slumber, it’s going to be very difficult to put together a winning streak.
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